Thursday, April 3, 2014

Wargaming the opening blows of civil war in Connecticut. The lessons of Waco and the phrase that the smartest state cops in CT are most afraid of.

Dan Zimmerman at The Truth About Guns asks Could Connecticut Gun Laws Spark Another Waco?
There’s been a lot of discussion among members of the Armed Intelligentsia lately about how Connecticut’s finest might proceed if they decide to confiscate unregistered guns from the state’s 100,000 or more newly-minted felons. The level of concern is evidenced by daily long comment threads, speculative posts by people who are not members of law enforcement, and even a couple of contributed opinions from the LEO community. The rational consensus seems to be that if the gun-grab order were given, cops would pinch a registration scofflaw at the grocery store, at work, on the road…anyplace other than his or her home where a Ruby Ridge-style tragedy might ensue. Here I propose the alternative–that LEOs might not in fact be that rational if and when the time comes . . .
Zimmerman concludes:
I don’t mean to tar all LEOs with this brush. . . . (b)ut, they are at least as prone to groupthink and bunker mentality as any other organization, and likely more so given the nature of their work. It’s what led Lon Horiuchi to kill someone he couldn’t even see, and what led the LAPD to shoot up a random truck and two innocent citizens during the manhunt for Micheal Dorner.
So it’s not that some cops are willing and eager jackbooted thugs. The potential danger in Connecticut is that someday soon, officers like the ones who ran the Waco siege may show up at the home of a gun owner who’s done nothing but have his name appear on a list of people whose registration forms arrived on Jan 2. They’ll be thoroughly convinced that gun owner is a violent domestic terrorist who’s holding the rest of the family hostage. They’ll demand his or her spouse or children in exchange for food or a phone call.
And if s/he says no, as almost any of us would, the negotiator will just assume they’re holding out for more. They’ll think of the gun owner as the one who’s trading on the family’s lives. And then, at some point, they’ll call it quits and send in the tanks.
Zimmerman is correct that we should not expect completely rational behavior from CT state cops tasked with firearm confiscation raids. He is incorrect to think that the Waco paradigm -- fatally flawed or not -- is what we will see in CT. Unlike the Davidians, CT firearm owners will not sit still to be held under siege if they can help it.
Seven years ago I wrote "Resistance is Futile": Waco Rules vs. Romanian Rules, pointing out that we, at least, had learned the rules at Waco and would modify our behavior in accordance with that new understanding.
Nicolae Ceausescu after the application of Romanian Rules
(W)e've had almost 15 years to study Waco Rules now. Fifteen years of studying how to best direct the resources of the armed citizenry against the next predatory administration grown too big for its constitutional britches. Fifteen years of considering the lessons of Christmas, 1989. After the cold war with the Clintonistas, we gunnies began to understand the finer points of credible deterrence. Now, having completed a long and challenging curriculum, we certainly understand what Jefferson meant by "pardon and pacify them." It would be wiser if Mr. Prather and his historically foolish liberal friends did not seek to give us a final examination in this subject of study, for the results are NOT academic. Just ask Nicolae and Elena Ceausescu. Of course, you'll have to go to Hell to do that.
This is also what I tried to get across to Eric Holder five years ago in my letter No More Free Wacos: An Explication of the Obvious Addressed to Eric Holder, Attorney General of the United States.
Elena Ceausescu a little worse for wear. She thought Waco Rules applied. Oops.
As I tried to explain to the Legislatures of New Jersey and Rhode Island, asking them, "Are you seriously proposing to have your own skulls turned into soap dishes?" --
(W)e live in a different century than Jenny Brooks. Had Jenny understood the principles of 4th Generation Warfare, she would have sent her boys to kill the Confederate Governor of the state of Alabama and his political minions -- not to mention the Confederate congressmen who passed the despotic laws and the newspaper editors who endorsed them. For 4th Generation Warfare understands that the way to defeat an enemy is to directly engage the war makers and decision takers. Win the war there, and the raid parties stop coming. This is the reality of war in the 21st Century -- this is the reality of the civil war you risk by pushing people you barely understand who have decided in their own minds that they will be pushed no longer.
Viewed from this reality, the tyrannical legislators of Connecticut voted in favor of their very own suicide pact, although I daresay none of them understood that at the time.
One of the lessons of Waco that ALWAYS comes up in discussions of Waco among LEOs, regardless of their opinion of the legitimacy of the ATF's raid, is that the first and most deadly mistake to the ATF raid party was the fact that the operational security of the exercise was blown from the beginning and yet raid commanders insisted upon going ahead anyway. The Davidians knew they were coming. That the entire raid wasn't wiped out in a Davidian ambush can only be attributed to the fact that the Davidians were peaceful, "law-abiding" people and they didn't understand either the nature of their enemy or that their fate -- all of them, men, women and children -- was sealed when the ATF fired the first rounds.
We have had the benefit of more than two decades of hindsight, and no one -- especially the forces of state violence in CT -- should expect that their victims will be as obliging as the Davidians. Indeed, I learned in a conversation with a resident of the state this week that the scariest words that form and inform the nightmares of the LE analysts in that state is the haunting phrase of an imaginary phone call: "They're coming." The analysts know, if the politicians do not, that CT law enforcement is riddled with resisters -- Oath Keepers, Three Percenters, limitless friends and neighbors of the men and women whom the CT state legislature has made instant "criminals" -- who will send out the Paul Revere warning when they learn the raid parties are on the way.
It doesn't take a military genius to figure that some will get out of the way and fade into the countryside according to preparations they have already made. Some will get their families out and stay behind, because of health reasons or stubbornness, determined to give the raid party a real ambush as the Davidians did not.
Given the lack of numbers available to the state authorities, they will fall back on the federally-sponsored vertical integration of law enforcement. They will turn to the tried and true "joint task forces." Yet as the analysts know only too well, that merely increases exponentially the opportunities for operational security compromise. It also guarantees one other thing, which they may or may not have thought through: The moment that federal forces get involved in such firearm raids in CT is the moment that the civil war starts in all 50 states.
As my friend Bob Wright once told an FBI SAC in Albuquerque NM when he asked Bob if he would take his men out of state to the site of another potential Waco:
"Why would I want to do that? There's plenty of you federal sonsabitches around here."
More importantly, from the point of view of the war makers and decision takers at all levels, such tyrannical murders being perpetrated by a combination of federal, state and local para-militarized police in one place will lead to all of them being targets under 4GW. The spark may happen in CT, thanks to that state's legislative tyrants, but the conflagration could certainly envelope the entire country with terminal results to politicians and the physical supporters and intellectual cheerleaders who form the brains of the bloody-handed tools who execute their orders.
Unless the state of CT holds in abeyance any enforcement of this intolerable act -- at least until the Supreme Court can rule -- you can count that some day, in the wee hours of the morning, someone's phone will ring and the voice on the other end will say, "They're coming."
Mike Vanderboegh
III

22 comments:

T. Paine said...

Brilliant post! The most cogent point is that we're not talking about just CT any longer. It's all 50 states! Might as well change the motto from III% to '50 States'.

Anonymous said...

Money quote
"The moment that federal forces get involved in such firearm raids in CT is the moment that the civil war starts in all 50 states."

Amen, Brother.
Like you said before, they better pack a freakin' lunch.

Anonymous said...

I surely hope that our betters in the ruling elite know they are on a fool’s errand trying to grab ALL our guns.

They shouldn’t expect to find ALL of them neatly stored in one place ready to be picked up and destroyed.

People have the good sense to have a few firearms on hand, but also have some backup weapons stashed away for safe keeping.

They maybe – repeat – maybe able to grab some guns, but they won’t be able to grab ALL of our guns.

SO THERE IS NO POINT TO INITIATING THIS POTENTIAL CIVIL WAR IN THE FIRST PLACE!

Anonymous said...

One of the lessons to be learned about being attacked in your home is that if you are winning a gunfight, PRESS YOUR ADVANTAGE: do not let them retreat and bring re-enforcements.

Who would have thought that a credentialed/uniformed local deputy (not in black war-ninja gear) would fail to knock and present a proper warrant during business hours? Is there no law?

pdxr13

Anonymous said...

One more factor to consider is this:

http://www.cga.ct.gov/2011/pub/chap535.htm

The New England State Police Compact will result in the other members of the NESPC to send Troopers to assist in this madness.

Anonymous said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/02/us/police-shootings-of-mentally-ill-suspects-are-on-the-upswing.html?_r=0

The quote from Stephen Torres describes it perfectly:

"They don't seem to learn from their past mistakes."

Anonymous said...

I've been preparing for something all my life. Until now I never realized what it was.

SWIFT said...

The civil war might not start in Connecticut. Right now, it is a hot spot, but SWAT raids are happening EVERYWHERE. Any one of which could could spark a firefight, that could escalate into a bigger confrontation, than anyone wanted. To be sure, watch Connecticut, but watch your own AO with equal attention.

Anonymous said...

Large swaths of CT are littered with stone walls, large red oaks and green briar clogged wetlands. Angelic terrain for patriots to take cover, maneuver and ambush. Hellish terrain for LEO's to set up a Waco style perimiter to prevent movement.

Anonymous said...

Check the blaze mike.

Colorado student suspended for tagging Malloy about gun control. This story is gonna go viral.

Harry_the_Horrible said...

I'm old. I'm fat. I'm tired. I'm married.
But if worse comes to worst, I'm may have use all my PTO and head for CT.

Anonymous said...

"One of the lessons to be learned about being attacked in your home is that if you are winning a gunfight, PRESS YOUR ADVANTAGE: do not let them retreat and bring re-enforcements."

uhhhhhh, have you not seen the movie 300? When King Lenoidas kicks the messengers into the well, thy are not permitted to retreat, but that doesn't stop Xerses and the Persians from targetting Sparta with its huge army. In our modern world, I can just imagine. "Did squad dumb f$%# report in? No? Who were they raiding again?..... Huh, no one made it back huh and we haven't heard from them? I guess we need to try to send a M1A1 or a drone to target...

Anonymous said...

Mike;
The SCOTUS has no lawful authority to rule on this. They have no constitutional authority to rule on anything within the constitution itself as it is restricted in Article 3 Section 2 "all laws and equities under this constitution..."
The BOR does not fall "under" the constitution it.

yank lll

Jimmy the Saint said...

@Anonymous:

"I surely hope that our betters in the ruling elite know they are on a fool’s errand trying to grab ALL our guns."

They won't. They know a decent percentage of the guns out there are in the hands of folks very friendly to the regime. Like as not, they'll be counting on those guns to be used, should it come to it.

Anonymous said...

The book "The Evolutionary Psychology Behind Politics" by Anonymous Conservatives (which is supposed to be free in ebook format this Saturday on Amazon, btw) should definitely be added to the now lost book list as must reading. One of the authors had a long blog post on the amygdala which included this interesting quote:

"The danger for us K-strategists (by which the author basically means Conservative) is, we tend to fight without thinking clearly, when we approach Meat(loaf)’s level of amygdala stimulation – and that level of amygdala stimulation is almost the only time we will actually fight. This can lead us to be easily manipulated by r-strategists (basically Liberals) into fighting other K-strategists. Few Conservatives, pissed that the Federal government is seizing their guns, will hunt down the nearest unarmed Liberal rabbit hiding in their bedroom, and kill them in cold blood in their own house, as the rabbit pleads their helplessness and innocence. Rather, K-strategists will tend to fight anybody but the Liberal, from heavily armed government agents who come to take guns, to radical Muslims trying to implement Sharia on the streets of America, to K-strategists of another race who have been goaded into wanting to fight us by the Left. Even though the Liberal is a vile creature, and the source of all our problems, we are almost programmed to fight anyone but them." -http://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/

The idea of 4th Generation warfare must be in the air or water or something...

Anonymous said...

13 days until NY gets in on the action with SAFE

Anonymous said...

Study maps on arteries leading into CT. There are major bridges to cross and three main highways into the state. All can be roadblocked or checkpoints created if SHTF. An area study is wise and if you know people there you can gain intel from them.

yep that is it said...

my guess is the bureaucrats will start this effort using paperwork, ie. collate all the known gun owners who have not registered (or whatever they are supposed to do) with other state databases & then computerize the approach by invalidating their drivers licenses, freezing their bank accounts, turning off their utilities, all easy enough to do for state level gubmint.

what are these gun owners going to do then ? complain somewhere when their drivers license appears on "wanted list" at traffic stop, can't pay their bills, no electricity water etc etc

police action would just be the final step for the few remaining nutters...

Paul X said...

@Anonymous April 3 8:21 AM
"Even though the Liberal is a vile creature, and the source of all our problems, we are almost programmed to fight anyone but them."

This is madness. Anyone who goes around shooting random liberals has his mind firmly controlled by the ruling class. "Divide and Conquer". Such a step would immediately eliminate all general support for a rebellion. In fact I suspect anyone making such a suggestion is very likely a government provocateur. Or a dumb ass. Or both.

I wouldn't put it past the ruling thugs to be killing innocents just to pin it on the rebels. They are masters at this game. You have to be better than a dumb ass to keep up with them.

Anonymous said...

"at least until the Supreme Court can rule" Can we trust a court to translate the US Consitution for us? I can read as well as the next man.

Anonymous said...

When I hear that the first group of gungrabbers have been shot from behind by the target's neighbours I will know the real uprising has begun ...

Followed by sos=ns-of-bitches being shot all over the Nation.

I pray that wiser heads prevail and foolish minds are changed before the apocolypse.


III

Anonymous said...

Three things:

1. Organize Neighborhood Defense Teams. If they raid in your neighborhood, ensure they do NOT get back out of it alive.

2. Study up and inform everyone you know of the power of JURY NULLIFICATION.

3. Know where the USURPERS live, work and play in your AO. Go after them aggressively once the party starts. NOT THEIR FAMILIES - them individually/personally. Same with the USURPERS supporters in the media, etc.

Do your homework now but retain NO RECORDS. It's all gotta be in your head.

God bless the resistance (if it turns out there actually is one.)

The world watches... is America still the "home of the brave?"


Diamondback