Friday, April 25, 2014

Here's a couple of ideas about Ukraine.

Now we all know that the United States guaranteed the sovereignty of the Ukraine at the time we talked them into giving up their nukes. We also know that Obama is going to let Putin do what he wants despite the fact that he is in the same position as Hitler was in the Rhineland -- if anybody calls his bluff with credible military force he'll have to pull back because the modern portion of his so-called "revitalized" army is so few and thinly equipped that he can't afford to lose any state-of-the-art armored vehicles or aviation assets. We also know that if he were to get Russia involved in another Afghanistan he would be overthrown. So, what the Ukrainians need more than anything is credible deterrence in the form of Javelin anti-tank missiles and comparable MANPAD surface to air missles that are manufactured by us -- and the Israelis. Now Obama is not going to do that because it actually might work, and the Europeans are too scared of disrupting the supply of their natural gas, but there is no reason why the Israelis couldn't.
Think about it. The Israelis could strike back at the biggest supporter of Hezbollah and the Syrians using the hand of the Ukrainians. A post-Putin Russia would not be in a position or a mood to back the hand that threatens the Golan. Israeli backing of the Ukrainians would discredit the anti-Semite faction within Ukraine and Ukraine's Jews would become instantly popular overnight. Like Israel's quiet assistance to the Kurds, they become the friend of all the little countries fighting neighborhood bullies, strengthening their hand in the UN. The benefits would be so great that the Ukrainians wouldn't even have to pay the Israelis in anything other than energy credits redeemable at a later date.
One final thought that the Ukrainians might use to motivate the Europeans. As Frank Herbert noted in Dune, the power to destroy a thing is the power to control a thing. If they are sold out by the Euros, it would be the simplest of things to blow up those Russian pipelines that pass through their territory -- a place famous for using guerrilla warfare in causes good and bad over the centuries. Pipelines are, by their very nature, absolutely indefensible from such attacks. Sell us out, the Ukrainians can say, and we'll make sure you freeze your asses off next winter regardless. Power to the Fremen.
I ran these ideas past a graduate of the United States Military Academy at dinner the other night and he pronounced them sound, if risky. What have the Ukrainians, or the Israelis for that matter, got to lose?


Anonymous said...

What have they got to loose?

Well if we consider that his most Marxist and imperious leader, doesn't really dis-like Mr. Putin, and does in fact hate Israel, and the average American citizen, as well as any enemy of soviet style Marxism, I'd say more than might be suspected.

But then I subscribe to the ethos that one is better off dying to defeat evil than living, embracing and allowing it to flourish. For the children, if nothing else.

Anonymous said...

Only problem is the supposedly more cozy relationship between Russia and Israel in recent years and months.

Pericles said...

Sound plan, but has to be covertly executed because the possible down side to Israel is to further annoy the Obama admin that leads to some retaliation. It does put the risk of retaliation against Israel on the admin, which is a wild card as they do not have to face reelection.

If I was Israel, I'd do it.

William Flatt said...

That's a VERY good point and an idea worthy of implementing - provided the right people have the audacity to do it and not look back!

Paul Kisling said...

What have they got to lose??? Lets see. When Syria gets this little rebellion thing finished and owe the Russians a favor they could really make life in Israel not so comfortable. That does not include some QUIET russian assistance to the Palestinians..

Ukraine? Look what has happened in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and Syria... All places that the US and Europe have "helped" lately. With allies like that Russia sounds like a friend.

Anonymous said...

And we want to start the 4th world war because?

Paul X said...

I'm trying to figure out why it is any of our business. Are we the cops of the world, or something? Isn't that half our problem? That Washington DC sticks their nose in everything?

This whole mess started when "our" government encouraged some Ukrainians to rebel, giving them the impression we would back them up. Well, our government lied. That will teach people to stop believing the minions of a fading empire such as our own. Obama's government is as much a paper tiger as Putin's is.

This crap is not our business. We are not the cops of the world, nor should we be.

Anonymous said...

I'm pretty sure the best thing for America is to keep our government of picking sides in this fight. We don't want to have a dog in it.

War is one of the primary weapons of mass distraction the Mandarin class uses to keep the proles from waking up to who the government sees as the real enemy: the people who know the Constitution.

Anonymous said...

Militarily achievable, yet Politically unpossible.

After seeing the Clintonbeast's waste of untold Blns. to worsen the situation in Libya, Syria, Egypt, and everywhere else this Administration tried to spread Democracy, will our *friends* in Tel Aviv be so eager to join the fray? Hardly.

On second thought, anything that hastens the demise of this current iteration of criminally non-Constitutional Federalism is to be greatly desired.

Go for it, Bibi!

Nemesis said...

With the upcoming EUSSR elections that the 'far right parties' now have a shoe in for, the EU is starting to look a little shaky.

Couple that with a possible UKIP win next year at the British general elections which would result in the British seceding from the EUSSR and things begin to look very shaky.

Let Putin have his way. He knows his military limitations do not extend into Europe proper. Like most of the commenters above, I believe the US should stay well away from this little hotspot.

Anonymous said...

The Russians and Ukrainians have a long and storied history of anti-Semitism. It is an ingrained cultural relic that will not go away in a useful time span.
The inherent Russian and Ukrainian paranoia would prevent any meaningful actions.
The Soviets stamped the internal travel papers of Jews to make sure they were identified. The issue is so very deep seated.
Supplying Javelins is as stated a risky proposition. They would broadcast "USA intervention" loudly.
Perhaps redirect some of the looted supplies from Libyan depots, instead of sending it allegedly to Syria, send it allegedly to Ukraine? They would just be recycling and returning to the point of origin those AT4/5 and so on missiles. That is all hypothetical, of course.
Still, not going to happen.