Correct answer? Neither.
Courtesy of Wretched Dog we have this link to Powder Valley from Rawles' survivalblog.com site:
At this time we are not taking any new backorders for primers that are not listed here. We currently have over 50 million primers on backorder. If you currently have a backorder in place your order will be processed as primers become available. Once we begin receiving more primers from the manufacturers and are able to begin filling current backorders we will update the website.
And Powder Valley is just one little company selling primers and other reloading components. The same folks who are writing blogs devoted to "535 Reasons Why David Rockefeller Hates You Personally" have been trying to convince people that the ammo shortage is the result of some sort of government conspiracy. On the other hand, the left-wing collectivists have been blaming "the NRA marketing campaign" both before and after the election that "Obama's gonna get yer guns."
Neither are correct. Market forces alone are responsible for this shortage. Both are selling the concept of a boogeyman for their own reasons, because their explanations fit into their preconceived notions. If we allow for the fact that
a. much of the demand is being created by newbies who never heard or read an NRA fundraising email or magazine ad, and
b. the repeated affirmations from manufacturers that they are doing the very best they can to keep up with demand (and why wouldn't they, it is how they make money after all?) then
c. the shortage must be the result of market forces alone. So what started the ball rolling?
Obama's election certainly got it going, and his anti-gun history and the awful appointments of hoplophobes to his cabinet didn't help. But there is something more existential going on here beyond "get them while you can."
Obama's policies -- the implications of ALL of his policies -- are what has extended this rush into corners of the country and populations of the citizenry where it has never before touched. Increase in crime because of economic dislocation, hyperinflation devaluing currency making real property the only safe store of value -- that is why this rush has made the Clinton rush look like nothing much at all.
I was taught in Econ 101 at Franklin University in Columbus, Ohio by a magnificent professor of Lebanese-Christian descent named William Jennings Bryan, Jr. (his daddy had enthusiastically embraced all things American along with his citizenship) that except in matters of love and sex, all economic transactions are rational. That is, no matter what the price agreed upon is, it is -- at that time -- worth what the buyer pays for it.
So, you can either buy now, or buy later, but eventually you must buy for whatever ammunition you have now is only good for one shot per round. You may reload it, of course, but that is another round. No conspiracy is involved, only buyers, sellers and objective conditions responsible for demand. The Elmer Fudds may decry our "panic buying" interfering with their deer hunting, or the police departments may complain about the shortage of training ammunition, but this does not mean people who stock up are stupid.
Is it so stupid to buy ammo NOW with depreciating currency, when later it may have to bartered for with other real property, or worse, paid for in blood?
So buy what you can, put it on backorder if you must, but get in line NOW. The fact is that this is probably a game of societal musical chairs and you don't want to caught unprepared when the music finally, irrevocably, stops.
Also, the recession, and fears of higher crime rates, break ins, etc...are spurring many former non-gun-owners to start looking at home and self-defense options.
In my neck of the woods at Suffolk County, the real demand had been home defense shotguns.
Speaking of primers, that is exactly what I need. Other than pistol ammunition, my rifle ammunition is in pretty good shape, except extra primers, which are one shot deals, and can't be reloaded or re-made like other components.
Reminds me to order more primers so my reloading bench is stocked.
When it all comes down to it, you can get 1400fps with a lead round ball out of a front-stuffer .36 rifle using construction blanks they sell at home depot for firing nails into concrete, Remington Power-Hammers and such. Level 5 or more "blanks". No primer or powder needed. Just the blanks and a modified muzzle loader or cap and ball revolver.
You can get .45 round balls and conicals going about 800fps out of a 7-10" pipe, just like a regular Colt .45 or Long Colt the same way and you aren't even "buying ammunition", you're buying "construction materials".
Necessity is the mother of inventiveness. "Construction materials" plus a "blank firing theatrical pistol"...doesn't even involve manufacturing a "legally qualified as such firearm" or going to a gun shop.
In one pan of the balance scale, an international treaty to make assembling a reloaded cartridge a crime. In the other, millions of primers on back-order. Millions. And BILLIONS already in the hands of The People, along with all the other necessary components. I'm proud to be an American.
As both a licensed commodities broker and an avid shooter, I can unequivocally state that you are incorrect about strict market forces at work. Perhaps the fact that very connected hedge funds - Cerebus, and Mid Ocean Partners for two examples - with CFR members as their heads, have purchased both ammo and firearms manufacturers. They are directing ammo to LE and military and away from the lowly civilian market.
Remount your skeptic cap and get on with your preps.
Anon sez: "Perhaps the fact that very connected hedge funds - Cerebus, and Mid Ocean Partners for two examples - with CFR members as their heads, have purchased both ammo and firearms manufacturers. They are directing ammo to LE and military and away from the lowly civilian market."
Uh, huh. And what is your proof of the last sentence?
Components are tight because the companies are diverting them to build additional loaded rounds that have a higher profit margin.
Companies will always favor their government contracts at the expense of the commercial market because those contracts are what pay the mortgage and keep them in business. Retail is where the flexibility exists to adjust for unpredicted demand.
Not going to let the government off completely. The recent attempt to cut off the source of fired brass is a glaring case in point. Some officious middle manager decided they could stick it to the gun culture and almost succeeded except for a massive grass roots protest and that most rare of birds, a responsive elected official. Not a full blown conspiracy, just one more opportunity to twist a situation in their favor and against ours.
As an aside, Mike, that source of cheap .223 pulled bullets seems to have closed their doors. Mom and pop operation and the gentleman passed away so their site is down and phones are no longer being answered. Pity, they had excellent prices.
Is it so stupid to buy ammo NOW with depreciating currency, when later it may have to bartered for with other real property, or worse, paid for in blood?Well, depends on where your calculus puts the rate of inflation and the risk of actually needing to use/barter it vs. the increased price vs. the opportunity cost of that money spent.
For Worst Case Scenario barter, you're really best off with .22LR, I think. It's as close to a universally desired round as is possible.
I definitely laugh a little at people who bought 1000 round cases of SS109 for $1200*.
(* Actual from-memory price I saw at CTD, and sold out at that price.)
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