Japan really cannot go this alone, and it is irresponsible to put them in that position. Whatever the current geopolitical situation which makes Beijing far more of a true threat to the international security order in the Pacific, turning this into a conflict between expansive Japanese military defense claims and access to shipping lanes which are used by everyone who trades with China (i.e. everyone, period) will cause a significant portion of regional governments and populations to view it as a reprise of Imperial Japanese ambitions, especially with Abe in charge.
This is a geopolitical disaster of the first order.
Not that I can think of any better alternatives. But this will only accelerate Beijing's ability to create a nominally anti-Japanese coalition in the region. And the Japanese people do not have the will for a serious military conflict with China, let alone against a regional alliance resulting from memories of WWII. If a conflict does erupt, they will be cast as stereo-typed villains and then fold like paper tigers, and the credibility of everyone allied with them will be ruined.
If there were any way at all for that to not include America, I would feel very sorry for them but seriously consider abandonment. Happily for our national honor, I suppose, that's just not realistically possible. Still, not at all happy for our national prestige, on which so much of the global order hangs.
2 comments:
So, where is the news on this subject?
Japan really cannot go this alone, and it is irresponsible to put them in that position. Whatever the current geopolitical situation which makes Beijing far more of a true threat to the international security order in the Pacific, turning this into a conflict between expansive Japanese military defense claims and access to shipping lanes which are used by everyone who trades with China (i.e. everyone, period) will cause a significant portion of regional governments and populations to view it as a reprise of Imperial Japanese ambitions, especially with Abe in charge.
This is a geopolitical disaster of the first order.
Not that I can think of any better alternatives. But this will only accelerate Beijing's ability to create a nominally anti-Japanese coalition in the region. And the Japanese people do not have the will for a serious military conflict with China, let alone against a regional alliance resulting from memories of WWII. If a conflict does erupt, they will be cast as stereo-typed villains and then fold like paper tigers, and the credibility of everyone allied with them will be ruined.
If there were any way at all for that to not include America, I would feel very sorry for them but seriously consider abandonment. Happily for our national honor, I suppose, that's just not realistically possible. Still, not at all happy for our national prestige, on which so much of the global order hangs.
Post a Comment