A Navy spokesperson told KFMB it wasn't their missile. He said there was no Navy activity reported in the area Monday evening.
OK, here's a clue. Admitting you are firing a "test shot" costs nothing, reveals nothing. If it was ours we would have said so. Even if it was new technology (which doesn't seem likely from the evidence at hand) admitting it costs less than not admitting it and ascribing it to existing technology. "Mystery rockets" cause more trouble than unannounced tests. This, if the Navy didn't admit it, then either some PIO is going to get his tail chewed for handing out false information or the Chinese Navy just sent us a message.
37 comments:
Absent enough information at the moment to form an educated opinion, my ****guess**** is that the alleged president's cozying up to the Indians in the last couple of days has royally po'd the Chinese, who have used their numerically superior Naval forces to send a loud message.
Squid
III
There was a NOTAM published for that area.
I'd go for a PIO getting his butt in a sling over a CHICOM missile.
This story 20 minutes after a workman left my shop after telling me he is working on a 4300 sq ft, 3 level, EMP proof "Bomb shelter" (his words) with 5000 gal fuel tank and 10,000 gal fresh water tanks with 12" steel doors, less then .25 miles from my business. I was in shock, until he offered to take me on a tour next week. While pondering this info, I finds this story on the mystery missile. Cold Shivers.........
Might be a mystery rocket. But... could it possibly be an "OOPS I cannot believe you pushed the wrong button and now we need to either deny ownership or admit to a negligent discharge so let's all get on the same page before we finally say it was a test" rocket?
1) The NOTAM was for today, not last night. These are not the announcements you are looking for.
2) Launching a missile requires significant preparation. You can't just accidentally set your cup of coffee on the big red button.
3) The only reason to launch a missile at sunset right off the coast of LA is to be observed. There is obvious strategic value in China launching an SLBM in plain view of the American public.
The most likely explanation is that this was a missile drill gone horribly wrong. Note that I say "most likely explanation", not "most likely cause."
IF the Chinese were sending us a message, I do not think the missile is the real message here.
I think the real message to us is.. their ability to get so close to us, undetected, and firing a missile.
It really make the US look as if we have gotten caught with our pants down!
MV may be right. Hiding a missile launch is near as dammit impossible so, if it were a US launch, there would be a cover story ready. It might even be the truth. Also the launch azimuth was northward over the pole meaning the Russian could see it as a threat. The Cold War may be over but that doesn't mean we are bosom buddies with the Russians. I don't think Obama is desperate enough yet to provoke a nuclear power.
Someone being able to sneak a launch platform (submarine?) to within 35 miles of the West Coast, fire a missile and get away is a definite brown shorts moment for the US military.
My money is on the Decepticons.
China has been saying for a while now that it would be very easy to launch a missile 30 miles off our coast...perhaps this is illustrating that point? After all, Helicopter Ben has devalued their (everyone's) dollar holdings by 16% just since spring/summer 2010. They might well view the announcement of QEII as an act of economic warfare.
There is also a resurgent Russia to consider.
How long ago was it that a Dem strategist said Obama needs an attack to "reconnect" with the public? How many times have they speculated that a major war would save the economy? It would also create enough chaos to enable...who knows? Disarmament, martial law, cramming through the rest of the agenda, something else?
I suspect we are about to be attacked. I don't like the looks of this incident one little bit.
azcIII
Several thoughts going through my mind right now.
If the U.S. were going to send a message to foreigners we would have announced it in advance. That way we get the credit when it happens and we control when it happens. The fact our military has no clue what happened here (according to the media) makes us look like idiots. So much for flexing our muscles as a show of strength.
Despite not knowing who fired it or why, the military was awfully quick to point out the public was not in danger at any time. Such confidence, hmmmm.
As paranoid as this country is after 9/11, the fact they didn't send out warships and fighter jets is quite telling in itself.
If another country intended to attack, it's unlikely they would have had such poor aim. They would have hit their target.
If another country intended to send a message by firing a warning shot, why would they do it only 35 miles of California when their missiles have a far greater range? They could have fired that missile from hundreds of miles away with less risk to themselves.
Why would the foreign vessel choose a U.S. missile testing location knowing it was probably being heavily-monitored by electronic equipment?
Very unlikely.
How could a foreign sub have gotten that close to the U.S. without the military noticing?
Possible due to incompetence on our part, but highly unlikely.
I'm no expert here, but I have three theories:
1) A U.S. technician made a boo-boo and the military doesn't want to admit it. "Don't pay attention to that missile America, you were not in danger so...just go about your day...nothing to see here."
2) Obama was proving a point to someone in India during a high-level but private back room meeting. He could have ordered the launch on a moments notice just to prove he could do it. That would explain it as being our missile, one launched on purpose in a harmless direction, and why most of the military didn't know about it in advance. Farfetched? Of course it is.
3) India was proving the same point noted in #2, except Obama was the one witnessing their incredible display of stealth and strength.
Has anyone asked Steve Jurvetson where he was Monday night? (He has a really cool hobby.)
I would rather think a message from pyonyang.
It's a misidentified contrail from a commercial jet.
Well boys and girls, I'd say that somebody, not us, got inside and now our people are scurrying for cover and tap dancing across the floor because they never thought the, not us, would do such a thing, to us. Since "we're all socialists now".
Ain't Obama wonderful! They are petrified of us I tell you, petrified! Pay 'em no mind, they're just doing what little Marxists do. But I really do expect a better performance out of our Marxists, by God!
Our Chinese friends DO NOT have a significant SLBM capability:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarines_of_the_People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy
While a launch such as that shown COULD have been from one of their boats, they DO NOT have a history of deploying these submarines outside Chinese waters. Best info seems to be that US could readily add ASW capabilities that would easily detect their subs, and a launch by them from the location in question would be along the lines of MANY actions by the US left wing - i.e. EXTREME stupidity. And our Chinese friends SEEM to be smarter than that group.
Of course, a launch like that in question is also in violation of NUMEROUS international laws. But if it WAS done by an adversary, I would expect The One and his toadies to bow before them and lick their boots.
Balloon Boy?
Whoa....you fellas have to be kidding me ! Do you REALLY believe the Kenyan obama's adminstration doesn't KNOW who launched what is believed to be a missile ?
Do any of you believe for a moment that we weren't following the sub that launched that missile ? That the Kenyan's minions aren't lying about the owners of that launch ?
The technology we have is so much beyond what the common American understands. The Kenyan knows who, what, and where sent out that shot across our bow.
Me thinks there won't be any monetizing debt in the future....and that there just may be some concrete overshoes fitted to the head of the Fed. Wouldn't surprise me.
DAN
III
The issue is not whether or not this is a chicom or nork missile - its whether or not there was a Gasden or threeper bumper sticker on the back of the rocket.
If not - its A-OK!!!!!!
There are only three plausible explanations; the top would be
A Chinese SLBM launched as a warning.
A Russian SLBM launched as a warning.
A North Korean SLBM launched either as a warning or it just malfunctioned because they're rather poor & build on a tight budget.
There are plenty of other countries capable of getting a submarine 35 miles off our coast (& closer) but none with the ability & equipment, other than the previously mentioned three, would have a reason to fire a ballsy warning shot across our bow.
To believe it was anything else is naive at best.
Brent R. - Arkansas
For Anonymous at 4:38 PM:
The Norks do not appear to have an SLBM-capable submarine:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Navy
The FAA's Air Traffic Control (ATC) radar should have enough skin paints on this item to determine from where it started and to where it went. It won't be as good as transponder info on Free World aircraft, but the DoD has enough info on capabilities to determine who it belonged to from that.
That they are NOT giving any further information is NOT a good sign. Nor is it all that unexpected from what is currently running this country. The stench is overwhelming.
Personally, I believe it was an American "negligent discharge" (sort of like in the movie "Fail-Safe") due to a mechanical/electrical/electronics malfunction. After all, even our ballistic missle subs are made by the lowest bidder!
chicopanther
Good lord, the loonie factor is high in here.
It's a contrail.
http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/thinking-tech/the-mysterious-california-missile-launch-that-wasnt/5646/
Old vidio of one of our own shots.
Wait for the newschopper crew interview.
This is INCREDIBLY interesting...
I just watched the vid, and there's (1) a bright light at the head of the trail - damn hard to argue it's not a missile IMHO (2) what can only be a fighter jet heading in its direction, in what appears to be a pretty big hurry....
Me? I think it's just what it appears - a missile. Whose? THAT my friend is the trillion$-o-dollar$ question, innit??!!
Forced to speculate?
Hmmmmmmm....
Surely the Chi-coms ain't too happy with ol' helicopter Ben at the moment, then there's the Norks, the mad-Ayatollas in Persia...
Heck, who - among all who might be able to scrape up the coin for a SCUD, and possibly a suicidal crew, HAVEN'T we pissed off lately?!
I must agree with Mike - the denials from DOD and the otherwise utter lack of intelligent answers make it seem to me like somebody (more likely a whole big PASSEL of somebodies) got caught with their pants down.....
Not good... Not good AT ALL...!!
I seriously doubt if we'll EVER really know the truth, though I fully expect some semi-plausible story will be given to calm the sheep...
Before I STFU, I gotta ask: anyone else considered the possibility of it being a false-flag sorta deal to let the _resident act all _residential for a bit, maybe shore up his image just a smidge and draw some attention away from his otherwise pretty pathetic regime??
Just askin'...
DD
P.S.:
Wouldn't need to be a sub-any decent-sized fishing vessel would do just fine if the crew wasn't too worried about what would happen to them post-launch....
There is no friggin' way that THAT was a jet contrail. It CURVES, bends..... the expansion from the plume is horizontal, in layers..... stacked and sliding to one side.
The missile in clearly burning HOT at the top, as one video shot shows... the sun is to one side, yet the very hot orange spot is BENEATH. So way it could reflect.
The point of it slow as is goes away, and gets smaller..... a plane flying towards the observer, as one covering source said, would get faster as it approached.
This was a missile. When they come out with a radar plot, and an explanation, know that those are lies.
I think it was ours. Why it was lit, I don't know. But I'll ask a good friend of mine Wednesday...
The Norks' largest submarines are hand-me-down Soviet Romeo class tubs from the Chicoms, and they cannot do this.
There is nothing "plausible" about North Korea in this deal.
If a chicom/nork/russian/indian sub/whatever could get within 35 miles of so cal to launch, would they really so blatantly expose that capability to everyone, including us?
I would think that that is serious close-to-the-vest, ace-in-the-hole shit.
Unless, to them, it IS all-in time, in which case my laptop would have melted before I could key this...
Ive seen two similar launched in Missouri I'm sure they know what it is. The problem is I do not.
It could have been a commercial jet contrail although watching the video it appears to be a bright point of light (rocket?) giving off the contrail. I suspect it was a launch from a US warship that was done in a hurry for some reason. The Atlantic and Pacific are covered with SOSUS gear and we routinely track subs that have crossed these trip wires. I dont doubt the Chinese have the balls to send a boat into our backyard but I doubt their ability to send one of their diseal boats that far. Eventually that may happen but I think its rather early for that to be happening.
ummm Lex Luthor with another failed attempt to achieve cheap ocean front property?
The important thing to keep in mind is the govt swears we are not in danger from ... ? well whatever that thing was.
move along nothing to see here.
you nice folks should stop believing everything you read on wikipedia. The Chinese (North Korea's bestest buddy) surfaced a sub one half mile from one of our fleet carriers while it was in the middle of a giant ASW exercise (that's antisubmarine warfare for those that don't know). They had everything in the arsenal pinging away & missed it.....that's a really big deal, that made the news (albeit quietly).
Wake up, reach down & grab your ears & pull hard.....maybe then what is & is not plausible will be more obvious to you.
Brent R. from Arkansas
Questions for further inquiry: Trajectory? Low orbit, splashdown, or mid-air recovery? If landed, who showed up at the site? Estimated payload mass? What kind of propellant? (using spectrometer readings from exhaust plume, etc) Staging observed? What was the status of airspace prior to launch? Restricted? Traffic re-routed in anticipation? Any near misses with aircraft? Did other governments with eyes scramble their intercepts? If not, why not????
Brent,
Yes the sub surfaced in the middle of a battle group. Thats actually not horribly difficult to do. The boat just sat on the bottom until everything passed over and then surfaced. However those boats have a very limited time that they can stay on the bottom and they have to have a rather good idea of the course of the fleet in question to allow them to get into the path. You are correct that its not smart to underestimate your enemies however its also not smart to overestimate them either. Our fleets tend to travel with attack subs in tow and it would not surprise me at all if we knew exactly where that boat was at all times and simply let it surface to allow them the assumption of victory. We did this with the Russians quite a lot. They would think that they had slipped their tails not realizing our boats are much quiter than advertised and our attack subs would follow their boomers on patrol all along the Atlantic coast.
Grenadier1
Further info:
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/11/10/blogger-solved-california-missile-mystery/
Definitive? Or misleading? We report, you decide.
And for those of you who feel the info on Chinese, Nork, and Russian boomer sub capabilities isn't accurate - well, you REALLY ought to consider applying for the job of White House Press Secretary. You'd fit in very well there.
Highly doubt its a missile. First, from what? A sub? If so, why? What benefit does China get in such an overt act? The Chinese have, for generations, prided themselves on overt sabre rattling and subtle true action. This would be the usual "exercises" declared and paraded for western media and quieter operations that reveal only how little they reveal. So, something so overt as a launch in spitting distance of shore is unlikely from the Chicoms. North Korea, while not as subtle, generally lacks the ability to launch anything sizeable. Additionally, they historically go flashy on home soil and commit little outside their turf. Mines, small boats, and maybe a torpedoe from within running distance of home. A transpac voyage, launch, and return, all undetected? Alittle ambitious and not like the conservative nation. As for the Russians.. we return to why. What purpose would it serve? Reminding us they have capabilities? Alittle ostentatious for a reminder note.
Utimately, none of the mentioned nations has any reason to wave a "look at us showing off" flag if they were capable of performing the feat... The only reason to ever show off this kind of capacity is overawe a technological/indistrial inferior. Against any parity power, the show off only tells your opponent you have some new toy to spy on, reverse-engineer, and remake better than you.
No, I buy the contrail story before China/Russia/NKorea.
And just about any other party who might have developed the capacity sure as hell wouldn't advertise, since such feats of technology, engineering, and skill from some small time power certainly couldn't best the numbers a first rate power could bring to bear unless they had been sercretly manufacturing and training for a decade. Finally, a non-government entity would certainly not risk such a capital investment on a warning shot. The goods or nothing at all.
Something tells me they know exactly what it was and they are just playing dumb.
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