Saturday, August 8, 2015

'There Will Be a Civil War in Turkey'

Welcome to Cizre, the 'Center of Kurdish Resistance'


Allen said...

PKK are diehard communists, regular kurds want nothing to do with them.

do not confuse the PKK with the Peshmurga.

Anonymous said...

We will be in quite the pickle when this kicks off. Given the choice of abandoning the Kurds and taking a stand against a radicalized Turkey, we will do what we have always done; abandon the Kurds. It is an absolute crime, but we will claim, just as with the Georgians, to have no real dog in the fight. I cant say the Ukraine, because we are quite openly fighting a proxy war to bide time while the rest of NATO gets its collective butts into gear. 70 years of letting the Yanks pull the weight have done no one any good.

Israel and Iran will back the Kurds, leaving very strange bedfellows. Israel will want a truly moderate Muslim ally and the Iranians will want to destabilize the Turks as well as help out a large ethnic group in Iran. Do not be surprised to see Saudi money and influence flowing their way to help stem the tide of ISIS. It has always been a three way race between the Ottomans, the Persians and the Saudi's to see who can consolidate Dar al Islam. We will, once again, sit on our hands until the smoke blows over and Kurdish bodies are stacked up to see who we will support.

Anonymous said...

"The tactical result of an engagement forms the base for new strategic decisions because victory or defeat in a battle changes the situation to such a degree that no human acumen is able to see beyond the first battle. In this sense one should understand Napoleon's saying: "I have never had a plan of operations."
Therefore no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force." Helmuth von Moltke the Elder

That's the origin of the boiled down phrase "no plan survives contact with the enemy."

And in keeping with the "face palm slap" simplicity of that statement the cause is obvious: the enemy has his own plan that probably doesn't agree with yours, except in a few very horrific examples.

The Kurds have obviously studied the fates of their neighbors, the Armenians, and that of Europe's Jews. They have no intention of allowing the Turks to work their plan of Kurdish extermination. The Turks are no patsies. They may well get their way with the Kurds. But depend on the Kurds to make sure it won't be easy or cheap. And they don't give a damn who does or does not support their determination to survive. Ask Sadam, Asad or ISIS.