Friday, September 6, 2013

The means was pitifully inadequate, but the targeting shows considerable thought.

"The power to destroy a thing is the absolute control over it." -- Paul-Muad'Dib to the Guild navigators, at his confrontation with the Emperor Shaddam IV in Dune.
Terrorists Launch Rocket Attack at Commercial Ship in Suez Canal
A successful attack would do a number of things and they'll be doing this again, you can bet on it. First, a successful attack (sinking or disabling a ship in the Suez Canal) would demonstrate the impotence of the new Egyptian government. Second, it would immediately garner world-wide publicity to their jihadi cause (remember, in 4GW it is the IDEA that is weaponized and exportable). Third, they actually don't have to SINK a ship in the Canal, all they have to do is convince the maritime insurance companies of the world that they can, and Lloyds of London and others will effectively shut it down for them. Fourth, by doing so they attack a major source of Egyptian government income. Fifth, the only real claim to power that the Egyptian military has is that they can keep order. International business will rapidly sour on them as guarantors of stability and, like the Guild Navigators in Dune, will be pressured to seek accommodation with any group that can provide it.
While some industry observers are whistling past the graveyard and crossing their fingers -- witness this article "Why the Suez Canal will remain open even as Egypt burns" -- there are too many upsides for the world-wide jihadi movement and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in particular for this to be the last attack.
Consider what the spectacular destruction of a gasoline tanker in the Canal would do. Unless these people are dumber than I think, the next attacks will be carried out with more capable means such as nautical mines or Silkworm missiles.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Which is another reason why the US needs to gain total energy independence through fracking, natural gas, and the Canadian XL pipeline.

Not that Our Dear Leader Opreezy will see it that way. It will have to be done on state and private lands instead of national lands. It will have to be done in spite of (not because of) federal laws and environazi squalling.

B Woodman
III-PER

Anonymous said...

You will NOT obtain total energy independence with those fuels.

What we need are a bunch of LFTR reactors (sodium thorium) for power generation. It's inherently safe nuclear power with little propensity for melt down and the technology has been around since the 50's but it didn't produce fissile material which is why the USG didn't pursue it....it wanted to be able to also make weapons grade material with the nuclear program.

It would boost the economy with real jobs, would make us energy independent in 10 years, would provide enough power for 500+ years at current population projections, actually produces enough power to power the entire grid, and would free up fossil fuels in the US for combustion engines or applications that require it over electricity.

Badger said...

"a successful attack (sinking or disabling a ship in the Suez Canal) would demonstrate the impotence of the new Egyptian government."

Substitute the geo-loc & gov of your choice. The operative phrase is "...demonstrate the impotence of..."

Peter said...

Here is my reaction, entitled Further Thoughts:

http://seeemilyplay.therealgunguys.com/?p=3597

Anonymous said...

Excellent - haven't read Dune in years.

Mr. Woodman - unfortunately, energy is a global commodity and regardless of how much we produce domestically, the prices we pay will be world prices. Unless you can convince this corrupt government to block all export sales of energy...

Also, consider Thorium in molten salt reactors - see EnergyfromThorium.com ...

--Bokey

Anonymous said...

I recently got back in contact with some old college friends who are both working for Exxon-Mobile and living in Calgary BC on the "Tar Sands" project. Their comment was quick and to the point when I mentioned O'Bummer NOT WANTING THE XL (Extra Large) PIPELINE, they said that the T/S oil is coming out of the ground whether O'Bummer likes it or not. A pipeline is going to be built one way or the other. If not North to South, it WILL BE BUILT to run East to West (or vise-versa) and if the USA does NOT WANT the oil, it WILL GO TO CHINA.
Shame that the USA won't be able to use that inexpensive fuel and that the Chi-Coms will be buying it at a bargain price. Once again SKREWED BY O'BUMMER.