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Saturday, March 23, 2013
Gun-Control Laws = 60% More Gun Murders
Excellent analysis. But of course this is not about facts but about Julius Streicher-style propaganda.
3 comments:
Anonymous
said...
As I'm sure you know, the real master at this is John Lott. Alas, the analysis you link to is far short of the standard set by Lott. It is, in fact, seriously flawed, by the inclusion of DC. But not for the lack of a Brady score. Inclusion in spite of that was explained, and reasonable. But DC is so much of an outlier that it skews the averages, making them unreliable in such small samples (sample size 8). The author should have used the median, not the mean. And while I've only eyeballed the data, it looks to me like the median is the same for each group, 2.7. So, not particularly "excellent" as these things go. In fact, so easily challenged that we should distance ourselves from it. Just cite Lott (or Keck) if you want to cite statistics as "facts" supporting our cause.
The eight states (including DC in that category) with the most restrictive gun laws and the highest per capita gun homicide rate - DC, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Hawaii and Maryland – all voted for Obama in the 2012 election. The eight states with the least restrictive gun laws and the lowest per capita gun homicide rate – Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Louisiana, Montana and Oklahoma- all voted for Romney in the 2012 election.
The problem is not guns. The problem is guns in the hands of the wrong people. This data unmistakably demonstrates that if we prohibit people who voted for Obama from having guns, then the gun homicide rate will decline significantly.
The author completely missed the single most significant statistical point in the data presented.
The eight states (including DC in that category) with the most restrictive gun laws and the highest per capita gun homicide rate - DC, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Hawaii and Maryland – all voted for Obama in the 2012 election. The eight states with the least restrictive gun laws and the lowest per capita gun homicide rate – Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Louisiana, Montana and Oklahoma- all voted for Romney in the 2012 election.
My conclusion - guns are not the problem. The problem is guns in the hands of the wrong people. This data unmistakably demonstrates that if we prohibit people who voted for Obama from having guns, then the gun homicide rate will decline significantly.
3 comments:
As I'm sure you know, the real master at this is John Lott. Alas, the analysis you link to is far short of the standard set by Lott. It is, in fact, seriously flawed, by the inclusion of DC. But not for the lack of a Brady score. Inclusion in spite of that was explained, and reasonable. But DC is so much of an outlier that it skews the averages, making them unreliable in such small samples (sample size 8). The author should have used the median, not the mean. And while I've only eyeballed the data, it looks to me like the median is the same for each group, 2.7. So, not particularly "excellent" as these things go. In fact, so easily challenged that we should distance ourselves from it. Just cite Lott (or Keck) if you want to cite statistics as "facts" supporting our cause.
The eight states (including DC in that category) with the most restrictive gun laws and the highest per capita gun homicide rate - DC, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Hawaii and Maryland – all voted for Obama in the 2012 election. The eight states with the least restrictive gun laws and the lowest per capita gun homicide rate – Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Louisiana, Montana and Oklahoma- all voted for Romney in the 2012 election.
The problem is not guns. The problem is guns in the hands of the wrong people. This data unmistakably demonstrates that if we prohibit people who voted for Obama from having guns, then the gun homicide rate will decline significantly.
The author completely missed the single most significant statistical point in the data presented.
The eight states (including DC in that category) with the most restrictive gun laws and the highest per capita gun homicide rate - DC, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Hawaii and Maryland – all voted for Obama in the 2012 election. The eight states with the least restrictive gun laws and the lowest per capita gun homicide rate – Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Louisiana, Montana and Oklahoma- all voted for Romney in the 2012 election.
My conclusion - guns are not the problem. The problem is guns in the hands of the wrong people. This data unmistakably demonstrates that if we prohibit people who voted for Obama from having guns, then the gun homicide rate will decline significantly.
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