Musical chairs at the Dead Elephant Party.

Paul Ryan’s new path to power.

One thing struck me:

He would never challenge Boehner or his No. 2, Majority Leader Eric Cantor, for their current jobs. But many Republicans think Boehner will leave in a few years, perhaps after the 2014 election, to make way for the next generation of leaders. The safest path of all would be his current trajectory: Run the Budget Committee until 2014 and then take over the Ways and Means Committee, to do to tax policy what he did for entitlements and spending. . .

“He wants to be a responsible actor, and Boehner has been relying on him a lot,” said one prominent Republican who talks often to Ryan. “Paul is not moving to screw or eclipse Boehner, so the speaker trusts him. He’s a wonk, and he genuinely enjoys governing. He still has the status to bring along most or all of the conservatives. And he has a higher profile, in many ways, than the speaker of the House.”

Worth noting: Cantor, who one day wants to be top dog among House Republicans, was on the opposite side of Boehner and Ryan on the tax vote.

Ryan needs Boehner’s trust to navigate his growing set of policy ideas through the House. . .

If Boehner's going to retire in 2014, he has even less incentive to avoid a sell-out of the Second Amendment this year. In addition, those who put their hopes on Ryan as a counterweight to Boehner are smoking something.