The alleged Iranian plot to pay the Zetas drug gang to murder a Washington ambassador sounds like the idea of someone who has little knowledge and even less contact with criminal groups in Mexico.
The story would be almost comical, if it did not threaten to destabilize the Middle East. It is filled with holes, beginning with the Iranian spies who, if the U.S. is to be believed, did not do their homework about undercover operations or the Zetas or Mexico or drug trafficking or criminal groups, or indeed much of anything.
The indictment (available for download below) says that an Iranian-American car dealer, Manssor Arbabsiar, based in Corpus Christi, Texas, was moonlighting as a spy for the Qods Force, a special operations unit of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Specifically, it says, he was working with someone described as his "cousin," Gholam Shakuri, who is presumably a member of the Qods with access to a lot of money to pay assassins via wire transfers.
At some point (the indictment does not say), Arbabsiar met a man he took for a member of the Zetas cartel, who turned out to be a Drug Enforcement Administration informant. The two then met numerous times in Reynosa, according to an ABC news account, where they hatched a plan to kill the Saudi Ambassador to Washington DC for a fee of $1.5 million.
Reynosa, as a quick Google search will tell you, is not Zetas but Gulf Cartel territory. But neither Arbabsiar or the Qods appear to be avid readers of InSight Crime, Southern Pulse, Borderland Beat, Molly's Frontera List or any other of the sites that cover this type of criminal organization.
If they were, they would have also known that neither the Zetas, nor any other Mexian criminal group for that matter, are really interested in committing acts of political violence on U.S. soil, much less ones involving foreign governments. They are interested in committing criminal acts, mostly in Mexico.
"I find it hard to belive that Los Zetas would entertain the thought of bombing a target on U.S. soil," Southern Pulse's Director Samuel Logan told InSight Crime in an online chat. "They and other Mexican organized criminal groups use street gangs for their U.S. operations precisely because they respect the FBI and the U.S. justice system. If it's true that Los Zetas agreed to target a foreign national on U.S. soil, with a bomb no less, this group is either more stupid or more desperate than we thought - or both."
To be fair, no one is saying that the Zetas were involved in the plot; the core issue is whether the Iranian government thought the Zetas would be involved, which speaks to the lack of understanding or contact they have with the Mexican underworld.
Of course the other end of it is that the Qods Force, which has certainly used cut-outs and misdirection in other terror incidents around the world has always before not only used strictly Muslim operatives, but prefers Shih over Sunni and Arab Shia over Persian or other Sunni as well.
We are also expected to believe that these experienced international terrorists didn't know that all transactions over $10,000 are reported when they wired $100,000 to the "plotters."
4 comments:
Even money say this will fall apart (or drop off the radar) as we learn the clowns from Chicago are involved somehow.
Probably something to give Holder some creds when he desperately needs some.
Hezbolah, who's operatives we KNOW are active within CONUS and throughout south America, would be the likely proxy for such an operation, however, Iran is not stupid. They've been getting away with killing our people and allies for decades without any consequences. There is no reason to believe that they would give up this successful model for another.
Having said that, they are very aggressive and engaged because they have experienced nothing but success, and as we are perceived to become weaker, they become bolder, like the "friendly" Chinese and Russians, who they no doubt have covert alliances with.
Considering the source of information in light of operational norms and known facts which were present here, the probability is that this is manufactured at least in part by the source, to serve whatever purpose they have in mind. This maybe partial cover for other operational issues but considering the timing and other pertinent facts, it would seem that one or two legs are missing from the chair.
One possibility that should be considered first is that some lower Qods Force leader was trying to "make his rep".
While Iran has used cut-outs they have a preference to use Muslims but they have used non Muslims before. Particularly in South America.
Considering that these guys don't know that you can't walk into a gunstore and buy a full-auto ak, I don't think it's too far a stretch to think they know even less about Mexican drug cartels.
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